Welcome to the first edition of The PM Scoreboard.
The PM Scoreboard is a new weekly series from The PM Pulse, published in partnership with Aldrin. Our mission is simple: become the definitive source for prediction market trading volume.
Every week it will show where each leading exchange stands on trading volume. We’ll identify the key trends and takeaways from the previous seven days.
I’m incredibly excited to partner with Aldrin on The PM Scoreboard. Sahil Patel and the team have set a standard for accuracy and rigor that’s exactly what it takes to produce the highest quality trading volume data and analysis, every week.
Scoreboard
The field traded $10.22B over the last seven days, up 7.6% from roughly $9.50B the week before.
Kalshi led with $8.72B, up 7.8%, and held 85.3% of total volume. Polymarket US was the only other platform above $500M, at $843.9M, up 1.0%.
Kalshi
Kalshi is the clear market leader, currently sitting at ~85% share.
Kalshi’s total volume fell 15.8% over the past 30 days, from $42.71B to $35.96B. Sports drove the decline, down 31.3% off a window that included the World Cup through the semifinals. Exotics fell 11.0%.
Crypto was the only category to grow – up 24.6%, from $5.37B to $6.69B.
Crypto’s share of Kalshi’s total volume rose from 12.6% to 18.6%.
Bitcoin-related markets are 88.5% of all Kalshi crypto volume.
ETH-related markets, the next largest, are 4.9%.
Within Bitcoin-related markets, the price up/down 15-minute markets represent 80.6% of volume.
In other words, Bitcoin 15-minute markets are 71.3% of Kalshi’s crypto volume and 13.3% of Kalshi’s total volume.
Additional Takeaways
Novig went live nationwide as a CFTC-regulated exchange on August 4, as covered in The PM Pulse 016. Two weeks in, it traded $148.7M last week, now sitting 4th in the field.
Parlays are now 35.5% of Novig’s volume, up from 33.8% the previous week.
Underdog self-certified combos with the CFTC in late July, as covered in The PM Pulse 011. Parlay volume shows up in the data starting in the week of August 4.
Parlays are now 48.2% of Underdog’s volume, up from 39.0% the previous week.
Parlays are taking share from non-parlay markets at all of Kalshi, Novig, and Underdog. We expect this trend to continue. As mentioned in The PM Pulse 025 this morning, Polymarket US has started processing parlay trades in a beta environment.
Methodology
Volume is tracked at the exchange level, not the front end. CME is expected to be added soon.
Trading volume is notional, where one contract equals $1.
Data provided by Aldrin.