Regulatory Updates
Utah Federal Court Grants Summary Judgment Against Kalshi
U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Utah’s gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts. The court entered summary judgment for the state – the first final decision on the merits in favor of a state against Kalshi, rather than a preliminary-injunction denial.
Judge Shelby held that CEA § 16(e)(2) is the only express preemption provision and that § 2(a)(1)(A)’s “exclusive jurisdiction” language does not independently preempt state law. The ruling aligns with decisions in Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, the Sixth Circuit, and Wisconsin, and conflicts with the Minnesota approach.
Utah Attorney General Derek Brown said the state will enforce its constitutional ban on gambling: “Gambling is gambling no matter what any company calls it.” Offering online gambling in Utah is a third-degree felony. Kalshi is expected to appeal to the Tenth Circuit. New York has already cited the Utah decision as supplemental authority in its own litigation.
“With States piling up court wins vs. Kalshi, the over/under on the number of geofenced states by early 2027 is 10. Take the over.”
— Daniel Wallach
Sources: Mick Bransfield, Ben Horney, Utah AG, Daniel Wallach
New York Procedural Updates
Judge Torres granted New York until August 14 to respond to Kalshi’s federal declaratory action; the state will move to dismiss. Separately, the New York AG’s office said it will seek to remand its $36 billion enforcement case to state court and therefore opposes the CFTC’s consolidation motion.
Sources: Daniel Wallach, Daniel Wallach
Company / Product Updates
Novig Goes Live Nationwide as a CFTC-Regulated Exchange
Novig completed its transition from a sweepstakes platform to a CFTC-regulated prediction market and is now live nationwide, excluding AZ, MI, and NV.
The launch includes instant live trading, a full portfolio view, new payment methods, parlays, and Novig Ranks (leaderboards for PNL, points, and volume).
Separately, Novig is hiring across multiple functions, including Finance Operations, AI Automation, Product Design, Market Operations, Security, Analytics, Lifecycle Marketing, Performance Marketing, and Developer Relations.
Sources: Jacob Fortinsky, Novig Careers
Polymarket in Talks for Raise Above $20 Billion Valuation
Polymarket is in early talks to raise capital at a valuation of more than $20 billion and is seeking roughly $1 billion, according to Bloomberg. The report also said the company previously closed a round at about $15 billion that included D.E. Shaw; that earlier financing had not been publicly confirmed by Polymarket.
Source: Bloomberg
Kalshi Launches Public Companies Hub
Kalshi introduced a Public Companies Hub that aggregates earnings updates, KPI forecasts, earnings-call mentions, and livestream links in one place.
ProphetX Partners with EPICK
ProphetX partnered with EPICK to integrate its prediction markets into the EPICK app, giving users a direct path to trade CFTC-regulated sports event contracts, including player props and season-long futures.
Sources: Jake Benzaquen, Matt Downs
Kalshi Self-Certifies MLB Games Market
Kalshi self-certified a market on how many Major League Baseball games will be played next season, a contract that would be sensitive to a potential lockout.
Source: Dustin Gouker
Other Relevant News
Senate Indian Affairs Roundtable on Prediction Markets
The Senate Indian Affairs Committee held a roundtable on prediction markets’ impact on tribal governments. Panelists included leaders from the National Congress of American Indians, the Indian Gaming Association, and Ohio Solicitor General Mathura Sridharan.
Source: Senate Indian Affairs Committee
FairPredicts Criticizes Clinical-Trial Markets
FairPredicts highlighted criticism of Kalshi’s clinical-trial and FDA-approval markets, including a father of a 12-year-old cancer patient who called the contracts another form of “death market.”
Source: FairPredicts
The Exchange That Posts Like a Casino
Great read on Substack here from Aaron, someone who has spent the last 18 months trading, analyzing, and writing about prediction markets.
Source: Aaron / Resolution Pending
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