The PM Pulse 012
NY Path Opens for Enforcement, CFTC Loses in Wisconsin, Robinhood PM Revenue Tops Crypto
Regulatory Updates
Second Circuit Denies Kalshi Temporary Relief Against New York
The Second Circuit denied Kalshi’s request for temporary administrative relief pending appeal. The New York Attorney General is now free to seek injunctive relief and disgorgement in state court. New York had agreed not to enforce through July 30; a filing could come as soon as Friday absent further emergency relief.
Key Takeaways:
Clears the path for NY enforcement under Executive Law § 63(12), which can support broad injunctive relief and disgorgement
Prior NY actions against other platforms suggest possible Wire Act claims as well
Develops the New York track from The PM Pulse 009–011
Sources: Daniel Wallach, Steve Bittenbender
Wisconsin Federal Court Denies CFTC Preliminary Injunction
A Wisconsin federal judge denied the CFTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against state enforcement of gambling laws on sports event contracts. The court held those contracts are not “swaps” and that, even if they were, the CFTC is unlikely to prevail on preemption.
Key Takeaways:
Clear loss for the CFTC’s preemption theory in Wisconsin
Related suits against Kalshi, Polymarket, and other platforms are expected to be remanded to state court, with state injunctions likely next
Adds to rulings rejecting the idea that the CEA’s “exclusive jurisdiction” language expressly preempts state gambling law
Sources: Daniel Wallach, Mick Bransfield
Company / Product Updates
CME to Launch Futures on Sports Performance Indices
CME Group and FutureSports announced a partnership under which CME will list futures and options on FutureSports Performance Indexes (FSPI). The first monthly and quarterly cash-settled futures are expected this summer, pending regulatory review. The indexes are based on officially reported, league-approved team and athlete statistics and are designed for hedging and risk transfer across the sports ecosystem.
Source: CME Group
Robinhood Prediction Markets Revenue Tops Crypto in Q2
Robinhood’s event-contract revenue reached about $156 million in Q2, ahead of crypto trading revenue of about $100 million. The figure includes roughly $17 million from Rothera. The company reported nearly 2 million prediction-market customers.
Sources: Neil Sipes, Sahil Patel
Polymarket Launches Research Institute
Polymarket launched the Polymarket Institute to support independent academic research on prediction markets. Brian Jabarian (Carnegie Mellon) will serve as Scientific Director; Kai Brusch (Polymarket Head of Data) as Managing Director. The Institute will fund fellowships and expand access to market data.
Source: PR Newswire
Binance US Plans CFTC DCM Application
Binance US CEO Stephen Gregory said the exchange plans to apply next month for a CFTC Designated Contract Market license to offer regulated prediction markets. The company has not yet filed; the comments were made at the Rare Evo conference and confirmed by a spokesperson.
Other Relevant News
Institutional Fed-Hike Hedge on Kalshi
Marex clients hedged about $600,000 on a Fed 25bp hike via Kalshi, with a broker describing pricing as roughly 25% cheaper than futures.
Source: Nicolas Hull
New Jersey Seeks More Time for SCOTUS Petition
Justice Alito granted New Jersey a second extension, through September 3, 2026, to file its cert petition seeking Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit ruling that went against the state in its case with Kalshi.
Source: Daniel Wallach
InGame Recap of CFTC Comment Letters
InGame published a rundown of filings after the CFTC comment period closed, including positions from CME, Kalshi, tribes, DraftKings, and a former CFTC chair.
Source: InGame
Kalshi CEO Responds to Minnesota Governor on Insider Trading
Tarek Mansour replied to Gov. Tim Walz, stating Kalshi already bans and enforces against insider trading and supports stronger federal rules, while arguing a ban would push activity offshore.
Source: Tarek Mansour
Podcast
The Risk Takers Podcast is one of the best weekly shows in the prediction markets space. It is co-hosted by:
John Shilling (@goldenpants013) – professional sports bettor and head of market-making/trading team Blackbriar
SportsProjections (@Sports__Proj)
On the latest episode they are joined by Henry Kerins, CEO of Manhattan Athletic Group (and co-host of Novig’s Inside Prediction Markets podcast). MAG spun out of Novig as an internal trading team and now trades sports markets across multiple venues.
Blackbriar currently ranks near the top of Kalshi’s yearly leaderboards — roughly #24 in profit (~$6.8M) and #27 in volume (~$608M).
Here is the latest episode:
“I don’t think it’d be crazy if we were beating Polymarket in daily notional sports volume by the end of this year. I think that’s a very realistic goal.”
— Henry Kerins, CEO of MAG and one of Novig’s earliest employees
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