The PM Pulse 009
Netflix Documentary, Nevada Settlement, and Kalshi’s New York Appeal
Media
Netflix Releases Prediction Markets Documentary; Kalshi Objects
Netflix premiered Instadocs: The Prediction Games on July 26 after a trailer released earlier in the week drew sharp pushback from Kalshi.
Kalshi argued the trailer contained a fabricated trade slip that does not match its UI and featured influencers rather than representative traders. The company sent a cease-and-desist letter and initially said one highlighted Spain World Cup trade was placed in 2025, before Nevada’s court order. It later revised that position, stating the slip and trade never occurred and that total volume on Spain at the end of May 2025 was under roughly $600.
Independent reactions were mixed. I agreed with the review from Jack Andrews, co-founder of Unabated:
Company / Product Updates
ProphetX CEO Outlines Long-Term Vision
In an interview with Capitol Account, ProphetX CEO Dean Sisun described the company’s focus on a regulated, exchange-based model designed specifically for the complexity of sports outcomes.
Key Takeaways:
ProphetX has been live in the CFTC-regulated environment for just under 30 days.
The platform has grown roughly 45% in users and nearly 40% in funds on site over that period.
Source: ProphetX
Regulatory Updates
Nevada Reaches Geofencing Agreement with Kalshi
Nevada’s Gaming Control Board reached an agreement requiring Kalshi to implement a multi-source geofencing solution (via GeoComply) by August 12, 2026, or face a $120,000-per-day penalty. In related court filings, Kalshi admitted that investigators had been able to place sports-, election-, and entertainment-related trades from within Nevada while a preliminary injunction was in effect. Kalshi stated it will provide the same implementation updates to Nevada that it provides to Michigan.
Sources: Daniel Wallach, Geoff Zochodne
Kalshi Seeks Emergency Injunction Against New York AG
Kalshi filed an emergency motion with the Second Circuit seeking an immediate injunction pending appeal to block the New York Attorney General from enforcing state gambling laws against the platform, requesting a ruling by July 30. The Second Circuit directed New York to respond by July 28. New York has opposed the request, arguing Kalshi faces no irreparable harm, that the equities favor the state, and that sports-event contracts are not “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act. The state also invoked the major-questions doctrine.
Sources: Daniel Wallach, Daniel Wallach
CFTC Advises More Specific Event Contract Self-Certifications
The CFTC released an advisory directing prediction market exchanges to provide greater specificity when self-certifying event contracts, rather than relying on broad or template-style language.
Source: CFTC
Pennsylvania Introduces Prediction Markets Bill
Pennsylvania House Bill 2711 (“Stopping Insider Trading on Prediction Markets”) would set a minimum age of 21, exclude “gaming” entities from market-making and similar partnerships, and implicitly allow sports markets, without imposing licensing, fees, or taxes in its current form.
Sources: Mick Bransfield, fairplaygov
Industry Developments
MLB Score Correction Triggers Multi-Million Settlement Chaos
An official scoring correction in the Giants–Angels game (initially listed 8–6, corrected to 7–6 after a walk-off ground-rule double) produced inconsistent settlements across prediction market platforms. Some totals markets settled on the original score while certain spread markets remained open longer and settled on the corrected score. Bond-bot activity on the Kalshi spread market reportedly drove volume from roughly 11,000 to about 5 million contracts, with traders estimating seven-figure losses for some automated strategies.
I agree with the takeaway noted by Plus EV Analytics here:
Source: DataBasedBets
Other Relevant News
Novig Files First Event Contracts
Novig (Ludlow Exchange) self-certified its first event contracts with the CFTC, covering a WNBA game winner and a PGA head-to-head.
Source: fairplaygov
Polymarket Publishes Perps Developer Docs
Polymarket released public developer docs and SDKs for its perpetual futures product, with a fuller public launch expected in the coming weeks.
Source: Josh Stevens
NFL Staff Visit CFTC on Prediction Markets
Two NFL government-affairs representatives met with the CFTC this week to discuss prediction market policy.
Source: Dan Bernstein
Robinhood in Talks with Crypto.com
The Wall Street Journal reported that Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to expand its prediction markets footprint.
Source: WSJ Markets
Underdog’s Injury Feeds as a Differentiator
Sportico examined whether Underdog’s near-instant injury and roster updates can help it compete in prediction markets.
Source: Dan Bernstein / Sportico
Washington AG Wins Preliminary Injunction Against Kalshi
A King County judge granted Washington a preliminary injunction after finding Kalshi likely violated state gambling laws.
Source: AGOWA
Kalshi Posts Large World Cup Volume and Fees
Kalshi processed roughly $53.5 billion in World Cup-related volume and more than $430 million in fees across the tournament.
Source: InGame
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